Dr. Bob
NEW ENGLAND (-8.0) 26 Arizona 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
I know Arizona is pretty much locked into their playoff seed, but the only player of consequence that probably won’t play in this game is WR Anquan Boldin and the Cardinals are a better team than Arizona even without Boldin. Boldin missed two games earlier in the season (week 5 and 6) and the Arizona’s compensated passing stats were 0.8 yards per pass play worse in those two games than they are for the season. But, even if quarterback Kurt Warner is 0.8 yppp worse than normal he will still be 0.2 yppp better than average (he averaged 6.6 yppp in those 2 games without Boldin, against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) and the Cardinals would still be 0.1 yards per play better than average (rather than their +0.6 yppl season rating). New England’s defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team, and the Patriots are particularly bad defending the pass (6.7 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team). Warner and the Cardinals should move the ball well even without Boldin and my math model favors New England by just 2 ½ points in this game. The pointspread in this game is just stupid and assumes that Arizona simply won’t play hard, which is unlikely the case. I’d love to bet the Cardinals here based on the line value but they apply to a negative 29-74-2 ATS late season angle. I’ll still lean with Arizona even with the negative situation.
Miami (-3.5) 22 KANSAS CITY 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Miami probably needs to win here to given themselves a good shot at making the playoffs, but needing to play well and playing well are two completely different things. Kansas City is only 2-12 but the Chiefs are no longer a pushover since switching to a spread offense in week 8 to better suit the skills of rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Kansas City has averaged a healthy 5.7 yards per play and 22.4 points in 8 games running the spread offense and they’re 6-2 ATS in those games. My math model favors Miami by only 2 ½ points using the Chiefs’ offensive stats since week 8 and Kansas City applies to a solid 203-124-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. It’s also supposed to be nasty weather in Kansas City this weekend and Miami quarterback Chad Pennington doesn’t have the arm strength to perform well in bad conditions, which is why he struggled so much late in the season during his years with the Jets in cold and windy New Jersey. Pennington has enjoyed mostly very good weather this season plaing down in Miami, but he’ll be tested in this game by the conditions. I’ll lean with Kansas City plus the points.
San Francisco (-5.5) 23 ST. LOUIS 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
The 49ers have been an underrated team since Shaun Hill took over for turnover prone J.T. O’Sullivan at quarterback in week 10, going 5-1 ATS in Hill’s 6 starts, but my math model favors the Niners by 5 ½ points if RB Frank Gore misses this game (he’s a game time decision) and without star kick and punt return man Allen Rossum (he’s missed the last 3 games and is questionable this week), so it looks like the line has finally caught up to their improved play and there is no longer value on their side. With that being the case, I’ll lean with the Rams on the basis of a solid 98-44-2 ATS situation that applies to St. Louis and a negative 25-64-2 ATS last road game angle that applies to the Niners. San Francisco does apply to an 84-37 ATS statistical indicator, but the technical analysis still favors the Rams.
New Orleans (-7.0) 28 DETROIT 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
Pittsburgh (-2.0) vs. TENNESSEE
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
CLEVELAND (-2.5) 19 Cincinnati 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati is coming off a rare win last week (just their 2nd of the season) and Cleveland is down to Ken Dorsey at quarterback, but the Browns are still a better overall team and the Bengals and my math model calls for a 5 point win by the home team.
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 24 San Diego 18
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
NY Jets (-4.0) vs. SEATTLE
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
Houston (-7.0) 26 OAKLAND 19
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Houston’s upset win over Tennessee last week gives the Texans 4 consecutive wins to even their record at 7-7 after starting the year with 4 consecutive losses. That upset win, however, sets up the Texans in a negative 22-50-2 ATS road letdown situation and they also apply to a negative 25-64-2 ATS last road game angle. Oakland was blown out for a second consecutive game last week and underdogs of less than 14 points are just 2-21 ATS if they’ve lost consecutive games by 20 points or more and are facing a team that has won their last two games. The Raiders have potential to play this game close, as they have proven to be decent offensively against bad defensive teams (Houston is bad on defense) and they have a good enough secondary to keep the Texans’ potent aerial attack in check. My math model, based on projected stats, favors Houston by only 4 points, but a model the incorporates scoring efficiencies favors the Texans by 11 points. I’ll call it 7 points and will pass this game.
Buffalo vs. DENVER (-6.5)
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
Philadelphia (-5.0) vs. WASHINGTON
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
MINNESOTA (-3.5) 26 Atlanta 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
NY GIANTS (-3.0) 24 Carolina 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks and the Giants have lost consecutive games to divisional foes Philadelphia and Dallas. So, instead of being a 6 point favorite in this game the Giants are now a 3 point favorite due to an overreaction to recent performance. New York is a still one of the best teams in the league despite losing those two games and too much is being made of the Giants’ offense suffering without suspended WR Plaxico Burress. Burress wasn’t having a very good season, averaging a sub-par 6.9 yards per pass thrown to him, which compares negatively with the 7.3 ypa average of the rest of the Giants’ wide receivers. Eli Manning has also been 0.7 yards per pass play better than average in 5 games without Burress this season, which is better than his overall rating of +0.3 yppp. Carolina’s offense has been racking up some big rushing numbers lately against mostly teams with very bad run defenses, but the Giants are good defensively against both the run and the pass and New York’s ground attack, which rates at 0.6 ypr better than Carolina’s after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses, should run the ball easily against a sub-par Panthers’ run defense (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.1 ypr against an average team). My math model favors New York by 6 points and, while I have situations favoring both sides, the Giants apply to a decent 173-108-8 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on teams that are projected to be able to run the ball well. I’d consider New York a Strong Opinion at -3 and odds of -1.15 or less.
CHICAGO (-4.0) 23 Green Bay 20
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-22 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
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