Service Plays Sunday 12/21/08

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Pointwise Basketball

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->NBA Key Selections
3--Boston over New York (12/21) 113-98

Best of the rest
12/21--Cleveland

NCAA Key Releases
4--Washington State over Idaho (12/21) 67-57
5--Florida State (+) over Pittsburgh (12/21) 72-73

Best of the Rest
12/21--none listed
 
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Power Sweep

4* Tampa 23-10
3* KC (+) 23-20 KC winning outright
2* Detroit (+) 28+ - 27 Detroit winning outright
2* Eagles 23-9

WEEK 17

3* Baltimore 27-0
2* Tampa 24-6
2* San Francisco 27-14

Over/Unders, Angles, System, WEEK 16 ONLY

3* Atlanta U46
3* Texans 044
3* Steelers U34
2* 49's 044
2* Eagles U41

Angles 3 Houston
3 Seattle
3 San Franciso

System Play is Seattle
 

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Larry's Las Vegas Insider

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts took a 10-3 mark with his NFL Insiders into Wk 15. He had the Falcons, a 3-pt choice all week, until Garcia was ruled out on Sunday. The game closed 5 1/2, preventing Sunday bettors from getting a push. That's exactly why Larry releases his NFL Insiders mid-week. His Wk 16 advice, "get it and bet it, now


Tampa Bay
 
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Kevin Kavitch

Tennessee strikes me as a vulnerable team right now. Injuries have played a significant role and I think opposing coaches have seen enough film now to figure out some of the things that made Tennessee successful early on. The Titans are 2-2 recently with losses to the Jets and Texans, giving up 375+ yards on defense during each of those games. Pittsburgh on the other hand has just finished beating 3 very motivated and solid opponents (Baltimore, Dallas, New England). They just keep finding ways to win. The D has been exceptional and that's their edge in this game. They shut down the opposing team's rushing attack (which is especially important to Tennessee's offense) and only once all year have they allowed more than 200 yards passing (228 vs Indy). With the #1 seed on this line I'll lay less than 3 with the better team who also has a stronger D and is healthier. Take Pittsburgh -1 for a 5* Top Play. I'd still lay up to -2.5 as a Top Play if the line moves. Play it now to get the best possible number.


Overall a monitored 47-32-2 for the season and 11-3-1 79% the past 3 weeks.


Detroit and Orlovsky delivered on the road for us last week at 0-13 and I expect them to deliver at home this week at 0-14. Forget the numbers, here's what I think this really boils down to. Detroit showed last week they're still willing to fight. Orlovsky is a leader and he looked good last week in spite of the layoff. He gives them a chance with the weapons he has like WR Calvin Johnson. Facing a road trip tom frozen Green Bay after this one, the Lions know they're staring infamy in the face. I expect their very best effort here. The Saints know they pissed away their season last week and even 9-7 won't do it this season. It wouldn't be a shock if that a bit of their intensity away. Big away favorites with bad defenses are a bad bet vs the spread and the Saints qualify. Losing Bush also doesn't help given his impact on special teams and opponent game plans. I expect the Lions will give the Saints everthing they can handle and at least cover the big number. Take Detroit +7 for a 4* Regular Play.<!-- / message -->
 
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2* Ravens +4 over Cowboys - The Ravens visit the Cowboys Saturday Night in what amounts to a regular season playoff game as both of these both of these teams are fighting to stay alive in the race. We see games every year in the NFL where teams are on the fringe and must win to get in, but we rarely see teams this good facing each other in this type of scenario. What makes this game special is that either one of these two teams is plenty capable of beating any other team in the NFL. Either one of these teams will be a major threat in the playoffs if they get in. As good as they are, one or the other may be hitting the golf course early this year.

All eyes will be on this game for more than just the playoff picture. Many will be looking on to see if the Cowboys, with all their drama, self destruct and finally implode. I wouldn't count on that happening though. As a matter of fact both of these teams are playing their best ball of the season at just the right time. In the case of the Cowboys, they struggled when Romo went down with an injury earlier in the year but since his return have won 4 of their last 5 games as they make their playoff push.

While the Cowboys offense may appear to be back on track, it's important to note that two of those wins came against the 49ers and Seahawks scoring 34 and 35 points against those two teams. Otherwise, they managed 14 against the Skins, 13 against the Steelers and had just 14 against the Giants last week until they broke a big play late in the game to make it 20-8. This is significant because they'll be facing a Ravens defense that is easily on par with any of those we just mentioned. Point being, points figure to be at a premium Saturday Night and with the Ravens getting +4 here, we'll have to bite.

This is a chance for the Ravens defense to prove they are for real. Many are going to point to the Colts and Giants hanging 30 points on these guys, both games on the road, and suggest that perhaps they are a paper tiger. We shall soon find out. But taking into account the Ravens season as a whole and taking a look at what the Cowboys have done against "good" teams recently all the evidence here points towards a close, low scoring affair Saturday Night. Some stats jump out at us here when we take a look at these two teams and what they have done lately.

Specifically, if we take a look at turnovers for these two teams, one thing stays constant whether we look at season to date or more recently, say, the last 6 games. The Ravens remain at the top in positive territory while the Cowboys remain negative. Over the last 6 games the Ravens are +10 which is #1 in the NFL while the Cowboys are -1. It gets worse if we take into account the entire season. For the Cowboys that is, where they sit at -6 and near the bottom of the league while the Ravens sit at +8 for 4th best in the NFL. Again, this shows a consistency in the turnover category from start to finish.

The Ravens are #1 in the NFL over the last 6 games in points per 100 yards on BOTH offense and defense. They have eye opening yards per point numbers of 11.6 on offense and 21.5 on defense during this 6 game stretch while the Cowboys weigh in with a very average 15 on both sides of the ball.

Romo is hurt. He couldn't walk earlier in the week. The Giants got to him a few times last week and made him pay. Don't think for a minute that this Ravens defense won't do the same. Romo has been notoriously bad in December. He has never been able to win the big game. He's banged up and the Cowboys leading rusher Marion Barber is questionable with a nagging toe injury which helped him gain all of 2 yards last week. Add in all the drama surrounding Terrell Owens and it would appear to be an uphill battle for the Cowboys.

The bright spot for the Cowboys is their defense the last few weeks. Add it all up and there's no other way to see this game than as a defensive battle similar to both teams recent games against the Steelers. In that type of a game, getting +4 is huge.

Look for the Ravens to get to Romo early and often. Look for the turnover ratio both over the last 6 games and entire season to hold true this week as the Ravens force Romo to make costly mistakes ala the Pittsburgh game while the Cowboys season goes down in flames. The feeling here is very simply that the Ravens are the better, healthier team and in much better position to win this one than the Cowboys. +4 points in this one is huge.

2* RAVENS +4
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ace-ace / allan eastman

$600.00 -108#117 Atlanta (+3) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 21)
I am not a big believer in Tarvaris Jackson and after four straight wins I think that the Vikings are going to fall. Atlanta has been a very strong underdog this year – especially against NFC North teams. They are 3-0 ATS against the North and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Vikings.

$600.00 -110‘Over’ 44.0 Arizona at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 21)
Arizona’s defense has sprung a leak. The Cardinals have given up 35 or more points in three of their last four games and have held just two of their last nine opponents below 20 points. New England’s defense hasn’t been much better, allowing less than 26 points just once in the last five weeks. Both teams throw the ball a lot and can score points in a hurry.

$2000.00 +103 #107 Miami (-4) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 21)
I don’t know how the Chiefs rebound from their collapse last week against the Chargers. The only teams that the Chiefs have played well against are those within their division. They are 0-8 SU against nondivisional teams and have lost those games by an average of 15.8 points. Miami missed my GOTY last week by an inch. They start to earn it back for me today!

3-team teaser
Ind under 54
bal +14
ne over 34.5...........................$300
 
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NFL Week 16 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (24-20 = 54.5%)

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Miami Dolphins stay relatively close to the elite NFL teams and beat the teams they "should." What a turnaround from a year ago! The Dolphins continue to surprise most people and win. Or is it a surprise??! This week, a big 67% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) are taking the Dolphins over the KC Chiefs. It looks like the Public is jumping on the Dolphins' bandwagon. In addition, the "betting Public" typically overvalues the motivational value of teams positioning themselves for the playoffs.

Although the Dolphins have been winning, a quick scan shows that three of their more recent wins have been by a total of 11 points. One of our offshore contacts, a sportsbook risk manager, told us that some "early big money" on the Chiefs drove the line down. Even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Dolphins, the line has moved from KC +4 down to KC +3.5. That is a huge move off of the "key 4" number. SportsInsights' (SIs) analytical tools confirm the existence of "Smart Money" moving the line in the direction opposite of the Public's betting. Let's take the side of "Smart money" and "Bet Against the Public" on the home dog.

Years ago, SIs published the results of academic research over a long 20-year period that showed a bias for home underdogs to cover the spread -- late in the NFL season -- and into the playoffs. SportsInsights' research shows that this bias continues to work. You can still grab KC +4 at SIA. Most books have moved down to +3.5 so grab the +4 soon.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 SIA

New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks

A few weeks ago, the Jets were touted as one of the best of the AFC. That "aura or shine" is still on the Jets as they are tied for first place in the AFC East at 9-5. The Jets play the lowly 3-11 Seattle Seahawks this game, in what looks like an "easy" game for a potential playoff-bound team. Or is it such an easy pick? The "Big Money" doesn't think so.

Early "Sharp money" pushed the line towards the Seahawks, even though a big 70% of bets are landing on the visiting favorite Jets. The Jets opened as 5.5 point favorites at CRIS but the line has moved down to 4 at most books. The "Smart money" has seen a Jets team struggle at 3-2 over their last five games as they drive towards the playoffs. This is NOT the performance you would expect to see from an elite NFL team. We'll "Bet Against the Public" and join the "Big Money." Bodog and SIA still have Seattle +4.5.

Seattle Seahawks +4.5 SIA

Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders

The Houston Texans have been playing great football, putting together a four-game winning streak, capped by its huge win against Tennessee last week. The "hot money" is all over Houston as they take slim playoff aspirations to Oakland against the lowly 3-11 Raiders.

We like the Raiders at home, plus the touchdown for several reasons.

The Raiders are a big home dog, late in the season.

Any playoff hopes that Houston may have are overvalued by the Public.

The Public loves Houston in this game, to the tune of almost 90%. Fade the Public.

CRIS opened at Oakland +7.5 but the current line everywhere is +7, even with most bets on Houston. Go with "Smart money."

Oakland has lost three games in a row, the last two by a combined 83-33. Ouch. Buy low!

Houston has reeled off four wins in a row. Sell high!

You should be able to grab Oakland +7 at low vig right now. The line may hop back up to +7.5 if you wait closer to game-time as the Public continues to pound Houston.

Oakland Raiders +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (24-20 = 54.5%)
Kansas City Chiefs +4 SIA
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 SIA
Oakland Raiders +7
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Dr. Bob

NEW ENGLAND (-8.0) 26 Arizona 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
I know Arizona is pretty much locked into their playoff seed, but the only player of consequence that probably won’t play in this game is WR Anquan Boldin and the Cardinals are a better team than Arizona even without Boldin. Boldin missed two games earlier in the season (week 5 and 6) and the Arizona’s compensated passing stats were 0.8 yards per pass play worse in those two games than they are for the season. But, even if quarterback Kurt Warner is 0.8 yppp worse than normal he will still be 0.2 yppp better than average (he averaged 6.6 yppp in those 2 games without Boldin, against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) and the Cardinals would still be 0.1 yards per play better than average (rather than their +0.6 yppl season rating). New England’s defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team, and the Patriots are particularly bad defending the pass (6.7 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team). Warner and the Cardinals should move the ball well even without Boldin and my math model favors New England by just 2 ½ points in this game. The pointspread in this game is just stupid and assumes that Arizona simply won’t play hard, which is unlikely the case. I’d love to bet the Cardinals here based on the line value but they apply to a negative 29-74-2 ATS late season angle. I’ll still lean with Arizona even with the negative situation.


Miami (-3.5) 22 KANSAS CITY 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Miami probably needs to win here to given themselves a good shot at making the playoffs, but needing to play well and playing well are two completely different things. Kansas City is only 2-12 but the Chiefs are no longer a pushover since switching to a spread offense in week 8 to better suit the skills of rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Kansas City has averaged a healthy 5.7 yards per play and 22.4 points in 8 games running the spread offense and they’re 6-2 ATS in those games. My math model favors Miami by only 2 ½ points using the Chiefs’ offensive stats since week 8 and Kansas City applies to a solid 203-124-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. It’s also supposed to be nasty weather in Kansas City this weekend and Miami quarterback Chad Pennington doesn’t have the arm strength to perform well in bad conditions, which is why he struggled so much late in the season during his years with the Jets in cold and windy New Jersey. Pennington has enjoyed mostly very good weather this season plaing down in Miami, but he’ll be tested in this game by the conditions. I’ll lean with Kansas City plus the points.


San Francisco (-5.5) 23 ST. LOUIS 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
The 49ers have been an underrated team since Shaun Hill took over for turnover prone J.T. O’Sullivan at quarterback in week 10, going 5-1 ATS in Hill’s 6 starts, but my math model favors the Niners by 5 ½ points if RB Frank Gore misses this game (he’s a game time decision) and without star kick and punt return man Allen Rossum (he’s missed the last 3 games and is questionable this week), so it looks like the line has finally caught up to their improved play and there is no longer value on their side. With that being the case, I’ll lean with the Rams on the basis of a solid 98-44-2 ATS situation that applies to St. Louis and a negative 25-64-2 ATS last road game angle that applies to the Niners. San Francisco does apply to an 84-37 ATS statistical indicator, but the technical analysis still favors the Rams.


New Orleans (-7.0) 28 DETROIT 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.



Pittsburgh (-2.0) vs. TENNESSEE
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



CLEVELAND (-2.5) 19 Cincinnati 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati is coming off a rare win last week (just their 2nd of the season) and Cleveland is down to Ken Dorsey at quarterback, but the Browns are still a better overall team and the Bengals and my math model calls for a 5 point win by the home team.


TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 24 San Diego 18
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.



NY Jets (-4.0) vs. SEATTLE
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



Houston (-7.0) 26 OAKLAND 19
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Houston’s upset win over Tennessee last week gives the Texans 4 consecutive wins to even their record at 7-7 after starting the year with 4 consecutive losses. That upset win, however, sets up the Texans in a negative 22-50-2 ATS road letdown situation and they also apply to a negative 25-64-2 ATS last road game angle. Oakland was blown out for a second consecutive game last week and underdogs of less than 14 points are just 2-21 ATS if they’ve lost consecutive games by 20 points or more and are facing a team that has won their last two games. The Raiders have potential to play this game close, as they have proven to be decent offensively against bad defensive teams (Houston is bad on defense) and they have a good enough secondary to keep the Texans’ potent aerial attack in check. My math model, based on projected stats, favors Houston by only 4 points, but a model the incorporates scoring efficiencies favors the Texans by 11 points. I’ll call it 7 points and will pass this game.



Buffalo vs. DENVER (-6.5)
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here




Philadelphia (-5.0) vs. WASHINGTON
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



MINNESOTA (-3.5) 26 Atlanta 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.


NY GIANTS (-3.0) 24 Carolina 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Dec-21 - Stats Matchup
Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks and the Giants have lost consecutive games to divisional foes Philadelphia and Dallas. So, instead of being a 6 point favorite in this game the Giants are now a 3 point favorite due to an overreaction to recent performance. New York is a still one of the best teams in the league despite losing those two games and too much is being made of the Giants’ offense suffering without suspended WR Plaxico Burress. Burress wasn’t having a very good season, averaging a sub-par 6.9 yards per pass thrown to him, which compares negatively with the 7.3 ypa average of the rest of the Giants’ wide receivers. Eli Manning has also been 0.7 yards per pass play better than average in 5 games without Burress this season, which is better than his overall rating of +0.3 yppp. Carolina’s offense has been racking up some big rushing numbers lately against mostly teams with very bad run defenses, but the Giants are good defensively against both the run and the pass and New York’s ground attack, which rates at 0.6 ypr better than Carolina’s after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses, should run the ball easily against a sub-par Panthers’ run defense (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.1 ypr against an average team). My math model favors New York by 6 points and, while I have situations favoring both sides, the Giants apply to a decent 173-108-8 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on teams that are projected to be able to run the ball well. I’d consider New York a Strong Opinion at -3 and odds of -1.15 or less.


CHICAGO (-4.0) 23 Green Bay 20
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-22 - Stats Matchup
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
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Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 16):

Seattle +5 over NY Jets
New Orleans -7 over Detroit
New England -8 over Arizona
NY Giants/Carolina Over 37.5
Denver/Buffalo Under 44.5

5-Star NFL Picks Season Total: 45-29-1 (60.7%)
 
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Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tennessee +2 (-110)


This may be a first. The Tennessee Titans, who sport the best record in the NFL at 12-2, are a slight dog at home. While I haven't been a big proponent of the Tians this season, feeling they have been the beneficiary of a soft schedule and a great turnover ratio. But, they continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, not getting any respect as the lines in their games have not been inflated. Their loss at Houston last week plays into a strange line this week. And, Pittsburgh's five-game winning streak, capped by a win over Baltimore last week also plays a factor. But, should the Titans really be a home dog? I think not! The fact that their opponent is off a win and they are off a loss makes me like them even more. Most got a chance to see Pittsburgh's big defense and win last week, while all that stands out from the Titans game is that they lost. Here is why there is value here. The end of the Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore game last week ended with a controversial Pittsburgh TD. If it was ruled the other way and the Steelers lost, what would this line be? The Titans out-gained the Texans last week by 100 yards and lost by a point. If those two games switched, what would change? The teams wouldn't, but the perception would and that is what drives the line. There is value here because if those changes occurred, Tennessee would be a -3 in this game instead of a +2. The Steelers have now had to bring it three consecutive weeks. First they played the Patriots, then the Cowboys and finally the Ravens. Their most emotional and physical game was last week. They now have to bring it a fourth-straight week, this time against the Titans who will be loaded for bear at home with the playoff-like atmosphere and drive after laying low for a couple weeks. I see a lot of value on the Titans who are 6-1 at home and will be ready to bring it in this one.
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Joyce Sterling Sunday

Sunday NFL 11/30

The NFL has been hot all season
It always gets difficult at the end of regular season
These are our top plays

Cleveland -3
10 Game of the Week
Cincinnati with more injuries and they can not score on the road.
In their last 4 road games they have scored 3, 10, 6 and 14.
Cincy has scored 2 TDs in the last 15 quarters averaging 9.8 in their last 5 games.
Cincy has covered only 1 of their last 10 AFC Matchups
The Browns have played better at home and we feel that makes all the difference in this game.

OVER 38.5 Philadelphia vs Washington
10 Game of the Week
Redskins both offensive tackles are out.
Philadelphia plays focused with revenge after blowing a 14-0 lead in the loss.
Phila looks to continue their run to the playoffs.
 

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Sunday December 21, 2008


WEEK 16 Best Bet Selection

Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants
3 Unit **BEST BET** New York Giants -3
 

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The boys nfl underdogs....

THE BOYS NFL UNDERDOGS
--------------------------

UNDERDOG GOW = WASH +5

HILTON PICK (PREGAME TEAM)= DETRIOT +6.5


*FOLLOWED THIS GUY THE PAST 2 YRS HIS NFL IS AS GOOD & IN ALMOST EVERY CASE (equal to budin) BETTER THAN ANY PAID TOUT.
A 62 YR OLD TIMER FROM TROY, MICH. WHO CASHES TICKETS WEEK AFTER WEEK..

HEY GENERAL, I BACK ON MY MAN THKS FOR BEING A GOOD MIDDLE MANd1g1t
 

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THE BOYS NFL UNDERDOGS
--------------------------

UNDERDOG GOW = WASH +5

HILTON PICK (PREGAME TEAM)= DETRIOT +6.5


*FOLLOWED THIS GUY THE PAST 2 YRS HIS NFL IS AS GOOD & IN ALMOST EVERY CASE (equal to budin) BETTER THAN ANY PAID TOUT.
A 62 YR OLD TIMER FROM TROY, MICH. WHO CASHES TICKETS WEEK AFTER WEEK..

HEY GENERAL, I BACK ON MY MAN THKS FOR BEING A GOOD MIDDLE MAN

so why hav'nt you been posting?
 
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The Gold Sheet Extra

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (35-28)

TROY vs. SOUTHERN MISS (New Orleans)...Troy quite an
accomplished spread performer, now 20-7-1 vs. number last 28 on
board. Trojans also 15-6 vs. line 21 away from home, and 13-5-1 last
19 as chalk. USM closed with a flourish in ‘08, winning and covering
its last 4, and has covered its last 2 bowls. This is also Eagles’ 7th
straight bowl appearance! Tech edge-slight to Troy, based on
team trends.
 

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